Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent disclosed Thursday that the administration is considering an Iranian crude oil lifeline as global oil markets brace for prolonged pain from Iran’s Strait of Hormuz blockade. Bessent said a temporary lifting of sanctions on approximately 140 million barrels of Iranian crude stranded on tankers could provide critical relief to markets where prices have exceeded $100 per barrel for close to two weeks.
The bracing for prolonged pain in global oil markets reflects growing concern that Iran’s Hormuz blockade may not be resolved quickly, with each passing day adding to the economic damage of the 10 to 14 million barrel daily supply deficit. Market participants, businesses, and governments are preparing for the possibility that the disruption could extend well beyond current estimates, making emergency supply measures even more critical.
Bessent confirmed the approximately 140 million barrels of Iranian crude on tankers, originally heading toward Chinese ports, as a potential lifeline supply. A targeted temporary waiver could redirect this oil to global buyers, providing roughly two weeks of price relief — a lifeline long enough, Bessent estimated, for the US campaign against the Hormuz blockade to achieve meaningful results.
The Treasury has previously deployed comparable lifelines, including a waiver for Russian oil that contributed approximately 130 million barrels to world supply. An additional unilateral US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release beyond the G7’s 400 million barrel commitment is also being prepared, while the administration has ruled out any intervention in financial oil markets.
Experts assessed the lifeline framing in the context of prolonged pain risk. Compliance professionals and national security analysts warned that if the Hormuz blockade does indeed cause prolonged pain, the two-week Iranian crude lifeline would need to be followed by further measures, each potentially carrying additional strategic costs of enabling Iranian oil revenues. Critics argued that a prolonged blockade scenario makes the strategic cost accounting for the Iranian crude waiver even more important, as a sequence of waivers could provide Iran with substantial revenue to sustain its military posture over an extended period.